[aftli]

Hey everybody. You guys might happen to remember me as Brett Gmoser, the guy who made the MAP Editing FAQ for Duke Nukem 3D awhile back. I'm still very excited about DNF. Recent events (starting with small screenshots, all the way to the Jace Hall gameplay footage) have gotten me even more excited. I think I've got some good theories on why we'll see a release date this year. Of course this is all speculation at this point, but I figured I'd share my theories here.

So here is my reasoning behind all of this, in no particular order:

• The DBJ article. Yes, we all know that the article and included release date speculation was denounced by George Broussard, but you can't deny that it actually happened and the article can't be ignored. Hell, DBJ was pretty pissed off over 3DR trying to discredit them that they actually went as far as to post an audio clip of Scott talking about the possibility of the game making this year. No matter the case, clearly there's an internal push to release the game by the end of 2008. And if there's an internal push, we know that it's at least remotely feasible.
  
  
• The teaser trailer, and other small bits of media (small screenshots from early 2007). I think that 3D Realms are as excited to show off their hard work as we are to see it. As a developer, I know that praise really helps to keep the ball rolling on a long project. This can be used to speculate on a release date because of the fact that 3D Realms has been so tight lipped about the project, and if it wasn't getting close, I don't think they wouldn't be releasing that stuff.
  
  The fact is that while they clearly like messing with us, and getting us excited, they hadn't done it in years before early 2007. With 2002 came the dark era of DNF, and we really didn't hear much at all, aside from some news about a physics engine switch. It's likely the only reason we even heard about that was that they were helping to promote the engine itself, and they (and Meqon) knew that it would be big news when they announced the switch. My point is that if it weren't remotely close at all, they probably wouldn't be feeding us snacks like that.
  
  
• The Jace Hall footage. To most of us, the game looked to be in a pretty good state of polish. Jason Hall described the game as being "a work in progress", but that he has "seen things shipped in far worse states of completion". Keeping in mind that the version of the game that he saw was circa six months before we saw it, we know that the game is in an even better state today, judging by recent statements about how well development is going now.
  
  Everybody noticed how well the game looked in this six month old footage, it was quite polished aside from some things that were likely there just for development purposes (the ego points when killing enemies, for example). George said that "We do polish passes on things all the time" and that "there are times when we lock down for 3-4 weeks and virtually everyone works on polish as a core goal", and also that they were just about to go through another of those polish passes very soon. With the game looking pretty polished six months ago, I believe that the upcoming polish pass will make the game good enough to make a real trailer. Which brings me to...
  
• The renewed interest in trailer discussion. I'm talking about this post. Scott is asking us what we liked about the 2001 trailer, and I think that means they are ramping up to create a new trailer very soon.
  
• Normal development time for today's modern games seems to be about five or six years. We know that DNF was restarted back around 2002, so it makes sense that the game would be in a pretty good state right about now. Development houses regularly churn out games much quicker than that. We know that George and co. are perfectionists, but also that development has been going "really well" and they probably have a large size team working on the project. Human Head started work on Prey in 2001, and finished by mid 2006.
  
• We know there probably isn't going to be another restart. Scott Miller is quoted by the DBJ article as saying that they've finally achieved the goal of creating the super-interactive environment that they've wanted all along. We can probably speculate that previous iterations of the game weren't able to do this due to hardware constraints of the time.
  
• Jon St. John did some recordings for 3D Realms. I don't know when he produced the recordings, but we know it was before the teaser trailer was produced in December of 2007. We can hypothesize that the four minute or so audio clip wasn't the only thing he produced, or at the very least 3D Realms has been in contact with him about the voice work for the game. I'm sure that there is no need for voice work if the game isn't in a pretty good state of completion, it just isn't totally necessary for development.

So, those are my clues that I'm basing my theory on. I feel we do have enough information these days to make an educated guess on an approximate release date. 3D Realms hasn't given us much, which really annoys me to be honest. We, the fans, are their bread and butter, and we are numerous. Aside from the jokers that just say stuff like "yeah, I'll believe it when I see it on a store shelf", there are those of us that are true fans of 3D Realms. Somehow I think that the DNF teaser trailer, for example, got much more attention than say even a DOOM 4 trailer from id Software would. Even if they're sick of hearing about it, there's really no harm at all in giving us periodic updates on the games progress.

As for the games current state of completion? Here's my educated guess. All of the monsters and enemies are in, and modeled. They are mostly complete, but may go through some more polish stages. Same with all of the weapons - from the gameplay footage, it looks like they are in a high state of completion as well, judging by the number of weapons that we can guess are available for selection in the HUD. Duke himself is in and modeled, and he's gone through some changes since the teaser trailer. Things like this are changing all the time due to feedback from fans - I fully expect that Duke's hair is redone by now due to the criticism over the model in the teaser trailer. Since we can guess that some voice work is done, then we can guess that the story line and most scripted gameplay elements are in a high state of completion as well. And if we can guess that, we can guess that much of the game maps are also in a high state of completion. George was quoted years ago now saying that it's "all polish from here on out". There's only so much polish they can do before they have a completed product.

Final verdict in my opinion? Much of the game is in a high state of completion at this point, and we can expect a trailer really soon. Once they do that, I think soon after we can expect them to be more public about the completion of the game. I'm looking forward to them doing weekly development updates, a-la Prey.

So here's looking forward to a trailer in July!

What do the rest of you guys think? Any more points to add to speculate on?

[Betelgeuse]

interesting read, your thoughts excite me.
I'd love for it to come out this year! (who bloody wouldn't!!!) but iv'e set my own date in my head for Q1/Q2 of 09 (don't want to get ahead of myself).
If the release date is earlier, like late this year , i'll be on top of the freakin' world, no!, UNIVERSE!

[rockmx8]

Agreed and Well said!! Get ready to Rock!! Let's do this!!

[aftli]

Thanks!

The more I think about that post, I think of things I want to elaborate on:

• Currently I personally make a living as a software engineer. I don't actually work on games, but I feel I have pretty good insight into the software development process. The process should be largely similar for games, and I think things like Jon St. John doing voice-over work really speak volumes about the games current state.
  
• I want to stress that while the above is all of course speculation, we currently have more information now than we have had since 2002 or so. And I really feel that information gives enough clues to speculate on an approximate release date.
  
• 3D Realms really do seem excited to show things off, and we've all noticed they have been posting a bit more now in the forums. Given how tight lipped they have been in the past, this is a clear indication that at the very least, things are going well.
  
• A lot of us expect a trailer in July or so. George has said that they will start this "media blitz" approximately six months before release, give or take. In my opinion, it'll be a "take" - they're planning on releasing the game less than six months after trailer. GTA IV took around 4 years to develop (work started in November 2004 according to the wikipedia article). The trailer was originally released in very late June of 2007, with a targeted release date of late October of the same year - about four months after the trailer. We know GTA IV didn't actually release in October of 2007, but it goes to show not only that game development houses and their publishers will release a trailer just four months before intended release, but that games can be in a very high state of completion at the time the trailer is released. My guess is that with previous missed milestones and release dates, 3D Realms isn't going to be a company that will "announce but not release" and miss another targeted date at this point. If we hear any speculation about a release window from 3D Realms directly, we can be pretty sure at this point that they'll hit their mark.
  Point being that if we get a trailer in July like we've all pretty much been expecting (even without recent Scott Miller comments about a trailer which indicate they're at least thinking about going forward with one), then we can be fairly confident that we'll see the game this year.
  
• In the case of Duke, they simply don't need six months of hype. Word will travel really fast - the quote about six months from trailer to release is quite old now. In the days of Digg, Slashdot, Shacknews, etc, they simply don't need six months to hype a game. The game has been hyped for 12 years already, and once it's really close to completion they just aren't going to need another six months. They are a business like any other, and they're going to be really anxious to cash in on their hard work.

I really just can't wait for the "weekly development updates" or similar from them. We're so used to being so shut out with information about the game, that a weekly tid-bit like they did with Prey would be most welcome.

[tkoyl240am]

Yeah, getting the voice overs is something to be noted for sure.
It could be either for voicing a trailer, or for the game itself. Whatever the reason, companies dont normally worry about things like that until they really need to

IE: near the creation of a trailer or the finishing of a game as level creation, models and textures would definately have more of a priority than the voicing (If jon was incapable of doing voices for some reason they could always find another voice as similar, or use technology to alter it)..

Either way.. I havent been waiting as long as you guys (seriously that when it comes joke really pissed me off) I never actually thought this game would be still in progress, but I come on for a check and realize i missed out on HRP for 3D.. and what do you know theres a teaser!! and talks of a fullblown trailer this summer! dayum its a suprise as good as any.

PS: Im havn troubles with the HRPack, if anyone could help me I posted a thread in the DN3D forums help would be appreciated!

[rockmx8]

I agree completely with both your statements and look forward to the Trailer this Summer and a Demo this year for DNF!! FINALLY LET'S ROCK ALREADY DUDES!!

P.S. I bet they were looking forward for the chance to survey us when the time was right, for instance the Jace Hall Show's Premier with DNF Footage. The Topic's Continued Growth sparked interest within 3DR, or they knew it would. That was their reason to ask us about Inspirational Ideas for the Next Trailer.

So A Trailer this Summer is highly likely from all the analysis we've seen, especially when they asked us DIRECTLY what made the 2001 Trailer Great...

ALWAYS BET ON DUKE!! DUKE NUKEM FOREVER!!

[Micki!]

You make some very interesting points there aftli, they make me think about the situation as well...

I just made along post, but decided it seemed too confusing and unecessary...

I'll say, i am not personally expecting a trailer in July, but i can see it's a realistic date to assume this would happen though, so i wouldn't be surprised if it happened at that time...

I do expect SOMETHING this summer though...
And on second thought, 3DR said the next things we see of the game won't be small stuff... I guess a trailer would just seem even more realistic when thinking of it that way...

[crunchysuperman]

I expect a ton of media this year, but not the game.

[Jobi-Wan Kenobi]

aftli, on Jun 10 2008, 02:47 AM, said:

So here's looking forward to a trailer in July!

as a developer how much time do you need to complete a trailer in the quality of the 2001 DNF trailer?!

[Lead]

About the voice overs, I think we only really heard Duke talk twice in that gameplay video. Neither thing he said seemed to really match the situation, and from the sound of his voice vs. the rest of the audio in the game it sounded like the Duke voices were added in post to the video. So 3DR probably gave them a couple sound files of Duke talking to add into the video for effect.

I'm pretty sure that have lots of various Duke talk laying around from all the various games including unused stuff. So theres a chance that the voice stuff hadn't really been done yet if you consider that. I wouldn't recommend having heard speech as a reason to jump the gun.

[aftli]

Lead, on Jun 10 2008, 07:47 AM, said:

About the voice overs, I think we only really heard Duke talk twice in that gameplay video. Neither thing he said seemed to really match the situation, and from the sound of his voice vs. the rest of the audio in the game it sounded like the Duke voices were added in post to the video. So 3DR probably gave them a couple sound files of Duke talking to add into the video for effect.

I'm pretty sure that have lots of various Duke talk laying around from all the various games including unused stuff. So theres a chance that the voice stuff hadn't really been done yet if you consider that. I wouldn't recommend having heard speech as a reason to jump the gun.

I'm not going by that. The stuff in the gameplay video wasn't even Jon St. John, it was added after the fact by HD Films. What we do know for sure is that they recorded the whole thing about Blu-Ray, the "motivational" thing for the staff working on the game.

If the game were a year or more away, I think they wouldn't be bothering with motivators. They're bothering with it because there is definitely an internal push to get the game done by this year.


Another point I wanted to make was that when the Jace Hall footage was shot six months ago, 3D Realms knew that it wouldn't be shown for awhile. I tend to think if they thought they wouldn't have made significant progress within the next six months or so, they wouldn't have given him the opportunity to record him playing the game.

And as for what Micki! said, it's a good point that George said that when we next see the game, it "will be in substantial form". And with many of us expecting something this summer, and all of us "staying tuned", it just seems like it's time. My speculation is a late June - late July trailer, and a early November - late December release.

[Micki!]

I like your (speculative) view of things, i certainly agree that it makes sense thinking of things this way...

I will of course still stand, by just thinking it's likely to happen, rather than expecting it to happen... But i believe you think the same way as this...

We should also concider the timeframe of which is the best for a game to come out...

Summer time, many people got plenty of time and money to spend... A great oppurtunity to release a big title for many people who

[aftli]

Micki!, on Jun 10 2008, 02:39 PM, said:

We should also concider the timeframe of which is the best for a game to come out...

Summer time, many people got plenty of time and money to spend... A great oppurtunity to release a big title for many people who

Right, and who among us is expecting the game to come out in Summer of 2009? Not many of us I think. I see a 2008 release as much more likely than a late 2009 release at this point. So that's why I'm expecting at least some big media to be dumped on us this summer sometime.

So yeah, of course this is all speculative. I hope we know for sure soon!

[kaisersoze]

crunchysuperman, on Jun 10 2008, 06:34 AM, said:

I expect a ton of media this year, but not the game.

^Listen to this man. He speaks wise.

Aftli, I really like your theories but don't think the game will make it this year.

Scott himself said that they are on an internal push to get the game done by the end of the year but feels it'll slip a few months.

I think we'll get a very good dose of media this year and see the game release next summer.

[Kristian Joensen]

Hi and welcome to the Duke4.net forums Aftli. Always good with new members especially ones that have done as much as you for the Duke community.

Do you think them hiring Brian Hook as a Producer means anything ? On his linkedin.com he describes his responsibility like this:

[quote]I am currently the producer on Duke Nukem Forever for 3DRealms. This means that I help schedule, unblock and manage the team while they deliver awesomeness in a box.[/quote]

And:

[quote]Responsible for managing, organizing, and helping an incredibly talented team of developers finish one of the most widely anticipated games in history.[/quote]

As far as the current status of the game, we don't really know much except what we can base on well grounded speculation like yours, but here are the most recent quotes that have a bearing on the status of the game:

Question:

[quote]Have you completed at least 70% of the models?[/quote]

Answer:

[quote]This is hard to say, as a model can be anything from a prop (like a chair, microwave, etc) to the tons and tons of models that go into the levels as architecture to flesh out a level.

A ton is done. We have hundreds of props that you can place in the world, and the artists just continue to pump stuff out.[/quote] - George Broussard, May 21st, 2005.

Question:

[quote]Are the majority of your models textured?[/quote]

Answer:

[quote]We complete them as they go in, so the ones that are done, are in.[/quote] - George Broussard, May 21st, 2005.

Question:

[quote]Have all the weapons been programmed in and are usable in-game right now?[/quote]

Answer:

[quote]Yes. In, with animations, sound pass, and final textures. We'll probably add a couple more as we go, and there are some whacky ideas we want to explore, but all the base guns are in and we could ship with what we have.[/quote] - George Broussard, May 21st, 2005.

Question:


[quote]Alpha requires that all levels be in-game and nearing completion, nearing alpha?[/quote]

Answer:

[quote]I think there are two levels we haven't started yet. And some others are in pretty advanced states, so it mostly balances out. I wouldn't worry too much about it.[/quote] - George Broussard, June 26th, 2005.

[quote]I think it'll be out when pigs fly. But it's definitely going well now. Things are together; we're in full production. We're basically just pulling all the pieces together and making the game out of it. There's a lot that's finished. All the guns are finished. Most of the creatures are finished. And as I said, we're just basically pulling it all together and trying to make it fun. We've kind of got all these disassociated elements that make up a game, and you put them together and things happen. And then you just tweak it and polish it until it's fun, and that's kind of the phase we're in now, just trying to make something that is really fun to play and interesting.[/quote] - George Broussard, January 31st, 2006.

[quote]Anything I say now is going to be like 'Yeah, I'll belive it when I see it,' So there's really nothing I can say now that's going to appease anyone or convince anyone or anything like that. We are absolutely the first to admit that this project is an industry joke at this time. There's no doubt about it. We're kind of a victim of our past success. Because we were so successful in the past, in a way it kind of gave us too much time to make he prefect game. But in the last year internally we've done a lot of new things, brought in a lot of new experienced people, and refocused the project. From an outsiders point of view, even though I'm inside the company, I can say that there's a light at the end of the tunnel finally. I'm not going to give any sort of release date or anything, but this thing is moving quickly forward. Obviously, no game is worth any sort of wait like this, but this games going to make people happy for sure.[/quote] - Scott Miller, Early-midish 2007.

[quote]First, we fully admit we’re screwed up the development of DNF, and it’s now an industry joke. I laugh (and cry) when I think about it, too. Our fault is that we set the bar too high, and we tried too hard to make the game to beat all games. In the last 18 months we’ve taken a much more realistic look at the project, we’ve hired a truckload of experienced help, and I personally believe we are now on the right track…finally.[/quote] - Scott Miller, March 20th, 2007.

[quote]>>> I'm also incredibly impressed that over this time 3D Realms has never been in debt or layed anybody off. <<<

(Sorry for the bad quoting method, I did not find a quote-the-highlighted-text button, and HTML is not my expertise.)

We've released people, and people have left us, to be sure, but we've never had a lay-off, as Raph said.

Also, we've been a key factor in several other major releases, including Max Payne, several third-party Duke titles on the consoles, and Prey. These have all greatly solidified 3DR's financial stability. In fact, I recently accounted for the retail sales of all franchises/brands that 3DR had a hand in starting, and it amounted to over one billion dollars (say this Dr. Evil style ).

With DNF, we can afford to take our time. That, in and of itself, may be part of the problem, though...we've been under no pressure to release, and therefore we haven't. This problem is fully appreciated now (and has been for over a year), and DNF is on a much faster track to completion than in previous years.[/quote] - Scott Miller, June 6th, 2007.

Question:

[quote]Where do your main priorities right now in development? Are you focusing on anything in particular? (finishing characters/environments etc…)[/quote]

[quote]Well, we’re doing a lot of polishing of set pieces, environments, and characters.[/quote] - T. Ray Isaac, Art Director, January 28th, 2008.

[aftli]

Kristian,

A great compilation of quotes as usual. I think most of them do point to a 2008 release. George's statement in May of 2005, more than three years ago, and only three years after the 2002 restart, shyed just short of saying "Yes, we're about 70% done with the models."

Also in 2005, three years ago, we heard that there were two levels they hadn't started yet, that the weapons were "In, with animations, sound pass, and final textures," and that "most of the creatures are finished."

Brian Hook's quote on his public LinkedIn profile is especially interesting, mostly because with the bit about helping the developers finish the game (emphasis yours, I know).

And this all brings us to the most recent quote there, which stated that the main priority in development was "doing a lot of polishing of set pieces, environments, and characters."

So there you have it, it's all polish from here on out, and as we could see everything looked pretty polished six months ago.

kaisersoze, on Jun 10 2008, 03:53 PM, said:

^Listen to this man. He speaks wise.

I'm not looking for anybody to agree with me of course. Only to share my theories.

kaisersoze, on Jun 10 2008, 03:53 PM, said:

Scott himself said that they are on an internal push to get the game done by the end of the year but feels it'll slip a few months.

I read the exact quote of "Frankly, we may miss the mark by a month or two" differently than "I feel we will definitely slip by a few months". That quote was in February 2007 2008, and all indications indicate it's been going quite well since then. We usually end up hearing about catastrophic stuff (even if 3D Realms says it's no big deal) like the mass exodus of employees at the end of 2005.

One more example of that is that they don't appear to be actively looking for employees right now. To me, that means the internal push is dying down, and they're readying for a release.

[rockmx8]

Awesome info dudes!! I am getting Ready for the Trailer, I hope you guys are too!! I say a Trailer this Summer is highly likely even if the game Releases in the first quarter 2009 if delayed.

However Atfli the part where you mention at the end in your quote about the Release Date Info from 3DR, you mention February 2007, isn't it supposed to be February 2008?

[aftli]

rockmx8, on Jun 10 2008, 07:44 PM, said:

Awesome info dudes!! However Atfli the part where you mention at the end in your quote about the Release Date Info from 3DR, you mention February 2007, isn't that from February 2008?

Yup, typo. Fixed. I knew in my head it was 2008.

[rockmx8]

aftli, on Jun 10 2008, 07:46 PM, said:

Yup, typo. Fixed. I knew in my head it was 2008.

That's great dude!! Now we just need that Trailer...

[Jobi-Wan Kenobi]

aftli I realy like your theory

Once again I ask you, do you know how long it would take to produce a trailer in the quality or even better than the one from 2001?
Because as some others already mentioned to release a screenshot can take a week.

[Damien_Azreal]

Great first post. Very well thought out and written.

And yes, I've been thinking that DNF may make release by the end of this year/early 2009. With more and more media coming out as the year progresses.

I've been saying 2008 since about 2006... so I hope I'm close at least.

[aftli]

Jobi-Wan Kenobi, on Jun 10 2008, 08:19 PM, said:

Once again I ask you, do you know how long it would take to produce a trailer in the quality or even better than the one from 2001?
Because as some others already mentioned to release a screenshot can take a week.

Not sure really, I'm not claiming to have any game industry experience really, just that I develop software for a living. From the description of the teaser trailer, it didn't seem like that big of a deal. They recorded things in-game from FRAPS, which is pretty easy to do. It's not like the technical part of it is hard at all.

They said that employees were "secretly working into the wee hours of the night" to produce a surprise in anticipation of the company Christmas party. If we are to believe that, then it couldn't have taken more than a few weeks to produce in their spare time. Does your company announce a Christmas party more than a month in advance?

I read that thing about some other game company taking a week to release a screenshot as well. Frankly I have no idea why that would be. The technical aspect of it is quite easy, the biggest part of it would be deciding how to place things in order to make it look the best. I know that most screenshots aren't *exactly* "in-game", I mean things are all arranged a certain way, and then a shot is taken just at the right time. Just like the images on cereal boxes - even though the splash of milk looks real, it's actually fake. They do that because creating the splash to be just right, then capturing the splash of milk at just the right time to make the whole image look great would be pretty hard.

So I don't think with a dedicated team making a trailer that it would take long, I mean we're not talking months here. A month tops? And even that is over the top. The 2001 trailer was great, and it *needed* to be great for them at the time, but I don't think every detail was given some huge amount of attention to where it took months to produce. I remember a few elements of that trailer that actually made the game look kind of campy to me - the scene with a bunch of boats chasing after Duke comes to mind. It certainly didn't look perfect. I don't have the exact quote handy, but I remember reading somewhere that George had said, probably responding to some criticism about stuff like that, that some stuff in that trailer was just temporary and put in just for the trailer, and would be replaced. At this stage, with their tight-lipped attitude and frankly no need to produce a trailer, I don't see them doing that at all. They're going to finish, or come damn close to it, and then make a trailer.

But that brings me to another point - if a trailer is so hard to produce, they aren't going to waste valuable manpower for a month and dedicate a team to producing it. Given their past and current attitude towards things, I think they'd rather finish the game first, wouldn't you agree? The teaser was admittedly nothing special, and it's not like they wasted a lot of time on it.

3D Realms isn't a huge team like say GTA IV had (I read somewhere they had 140+ developers on the project). So if they release a trailer, and it is very time consuming to produce, you can bet they're further along on the game than say Rockstar was with much more manpower. [added on edit] And didn't we get something like 4 trailers for GTA 4 between June 2007 and release?

Hey, one more small point. Remember George said that all of the stuff in the teaser was in-game, shot with FRAPS, except for some intro and opening scenes? If that's the case, the scene with duke weight-lifting, if in-game, was definitely a cut scene, game intro, something like that. Along the same lines as getting voice work done, I don't think they'd be bothering to render cut scenes and intros if they weren't pretty far along with the game.

Anyway, I really hope all this stuff points to a 2008 release. Even if it doesn't release this year, I know we'll be getting a lot more information, and we all pretty much seem to agree on that. And frankly I'm done with "no news is good news" - any news at all will be good news at this point to me (aside from the pretty unlikely "uh, guys, sorry, it's been canceled) .

[rockmx8]

Pretty good answer to the Trailer Question, and I am sure they can make a Trailer since they're nearly done with the polishing and completion of the game.

[crunchysuperman]

rockmx8, on Jun 10 2008, 09:41 PM, said:

since they're nearly done with the polishing and completion of the game.

Ok, that's just optimistic beyond the realm of the ridiculous. If they were nearly done polishing the game, we'd have been getting a slathering of media for many months now, not to mention a release date.

[zchri9]

i think theres a possibility we will play dnf in 2008 allthough ive been saying its going to come out for ages
2006 i think its going to come out this year or next
2007 i think its going to come out this year or next
2008 I really really think its going to come out this year or next!
i have a feeling about this year or early next year so i hope it comes out and kicks ass (screws halo over LMAO)

[Halcyon]

Aftli, I think you made a lot of very good and interesting points, but there's one thing I can't agree with. ->

aftli, on Jun 11 2008, 02:51 AM, said:

They're going to finish, or come damn close to it, and then make a trailer.

But that brings me to another point - if a trailer is so hard to produce, they aren't going to waste valuable manpower for a month and dedicate a team to producing it. Given their past and current attitude towards things, I think they'd rather finish the game first, wouldn't you agree? The teaser was admittedly nothing special, and it's not like they wasted a lot of time on it.

Producing a trailer doesn't mean that the whole 3DR crew has to work on it and no other work gets done meanwhile.
Marketing is essential for the success of a game.
You need some time to build up hype with screenshots, trailers and other promotion before your game goes gold. If 3DR would start hyping their game just a month or so before the release, it would be much too late and I could almost guarantee you that the game would be a massive flop (regardless of its qualities).

Personally, I believe that a release somewhere around the first or second quarter of 2009 could be possible. We'll see.

[aftli]

Halcyon, on Jun 11 2008, 08:54 AM, said:

Producing a trailer doesn't mean that the whole 3DR crew has to work on it and no other work gets done meanwhile.

I agree with you there. That was my argument for most of that post, I just threw in there that if it's so hard to produce a trailer, I think they'd want to finish up first.

Halcyon, on Jun 11 2008, 08:54 AM, said:

Marketing is essential for the success of a game.
You need some time to build up hype with screenshots, trailers and other promotion before your game goes gold. If 3DR would start hyping their game just a month or so before the release, it would be much too late and I could almost guarantee you that the game would be a massive flop (regardless of its qualities).

Agreed there as well, they'll need time to build up hype. But given the nature of the games long development cycle, and with the fan frenzy surrounding every small bit of media released up until this point, an argument can be made that they wouldn't need more than 3 or 4 months or so.

Anyway this is all happy, friendly speculation, even if optimistic. None of us know much right now, but I think we can all be happy and agree that we'll likely see the game sooner rather than later - say a few years later.

[Halcyon]

aftli, on Jun 11 2008, 03:44 PM, said:

Agreed there as well, they'll need time to build up hype. But given the nature of the games long development cycle, and with the fan frenzy surrounding every small bit of media released up until this point, an argument can be made that they wouldn't need more than 3 or 4 months or so.

The fans won't be the problem, but they need to get the non-Duke fans interested in this game again.
The gameplay footage from Jace Hall was nice, it's a cool gift for the fans, but it's nothing to get many "normal" gamers interested.

aftli, on Jun 11 2008, 03:44 PM, said:

Anyway this is all happy, friendly speculation, even if optimistic. None of us know much right now, but I think we can all be happy and agree that we'll likely see the game sooner rather than later - say a few years later.

Indeed. Like I said in my post above, you made some very interesting points and I had a good read!

[rockmx8]

crunchysuperman, on Jun 11 2008, 06:42 AM, said:

Ok, that's just optimistic beyond the realm of the ridiculous. If they were nearly done polishing the game, we'd have been getting a slathering of media for many months now, not to mention a release date.

Yeah you're right but they are almost done with the game is what matters and what I meant to say... So Media Release this Summer or this year is highly likely.

Yes indeed Halcyon the Duke Fans are not the problem, but the non-Duke Fans are... Getting them to be convinced will not be hard as long the Media and Game Info is Killer.

If we find the features and Media outstanding, then they should too because DNF is going to be a New and much Better FPS than the any on the Market right now for sure. So I am sure when 3DR decides to show Media and Release Info at a Good Strategic time this year, then people such as Duke fans and Non-Duke Fans will see the Glory of the game much more efficiently. (But the Fans will see it easier than the non-Duke Fans obviously)

I agree with the above statements and hope for a Trailer this Summer hopefully, there's a high chance otherwise why would they ask in the forums what made the 2001 Trailer a Hit and etc you know...

[DavoX]

I think this is TOO OPTIMISTIC. We have to be realistic here. Not even an inhouse developer can know what's gonna happen in a year. Not even GEORGE OR SCOTT. That means when they said the internal push was Q4 2008/Q1 2009 it's just that, an internal push, doesn't mean it's gonna be released at that time, at all. It's like having really high goals in life, at least you'll reach higher than when having low goals, get my point?

A trailer does take a lot of time to make, it isn't just recording some stuff and that's it. It takes a lot of planning, deciding what to show, what not to show, do we include voice acting and call Jon? "don't show this spot because it's a spoiler!" "we better leave that as a surprise!" etc, etc ,etc. Then comes the editing, effects, and all that. George deciding if the trailer is goor or not, if he doesn't like it then the whole process repeats or he asks for the modification of little, a lot, or the entire trailer.

The trailer only, in my opinion, will take more than 3 months from now on to be shown. Don't expect anything for july, it's just silly. The mere fact that scott just now is asking for feedback, just proves this.

No, a trailer has nothing to do with actual development of the game and will not hinder it. Modellers, programmers, texture artists, sound engineers ,etc probably know jack crap about video editing or how to make a trailer, so they won't be up for that task. A proper video engineer will take up that work.

Kristian, old quotes don't mean anything by now, so it's pointless to talk about them now. Maybe the game was 70% done a few years ago, and now it's 60% due to added branches in the storyline, etc. You never know.

My best bet would be a trailer for christmas. Game for summer 2009.